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11/02/2004:

"Tiptoeing Leftward: Uruguayan Victor's Moment of Truth"

by Larry Rohter
MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Nov. 1 - After a 33-year struggle, the left has finally gained power here. But if the experience of a neighboring country like Brazil is any guide, Tabaré Vázquez and his Broad Front, narrow winners in the election on Sunday, are more likely to tinker around the edges of Uruguay's problems than carry out the profound social transformation they have been promising.

Dr. Vázquez's coalition is a rather ungainly beast, ranging from Communists to Christian Democrats, and he has sought to keep its various components happy with declarations that can be interpreted in many different ways. But his victory has awakened expectations of immediate change that are likely to be fanned by those on the left, which includes former Tupamaro guerrillas.

At the same time, Dr. Vázquez lacks the financial resources he needs to fulfill those promises, which in turn constrains his political maneuverability. So what will he turn out to be: an unpredictable populist like Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, or a fiscal disciplinarian like Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil?

"As they say at bullfights, this is the hour of truth," said Luis Eduardo González, a pollster and prominent political commentator. "There has been a lot of dubious rhetoric" about a social revolution, he said, but if Dr. Vázquez and other Front leaders knuckle under to the harsh realities facing this country of 3.5 million, "they will have to deny their own past history."

Full Article: nytimes.com