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01/17/2006:

"Tariq Ali: Iraq's destiny still rests between God, blood and oil"

By year three of Iraq's occupation, for most western citizens the fact that they live in a world subjugated by lies, half-truths and suppressed facts has become part of everyday life. In Iraq, a preoccupation for many of the country's citizens, including some who initially supported the war, is whether their country will survive or whether the result of western recolonisation will soon be disintegration. A Hobbesian landscape today could lead to a tripartite division tomorrow.

...What lies ahead? The US occupation is heavily dependent on the de facto support of the Shia political parties, especially Sciri (the Supreme Council for the Revolution in Iraq), Tehran's instrument in Iraq. Ayatollah Sistani, who, soon after the fall of Baghdad, told Iraqis of every hue that he favoured an independent and united Iraq, may have meant it at the time, but events have moved on. When Sistani prevented Shia groups from waging their own struggle and persuaded Moqtada al-Sadr to cease resistance, he also dented the unity of the country. A unified resistance fighting on two fronts could have led to a unified government later. Unsurprisingly, Thomas Friedman, of the New York Times, has demanded that Sistani be awarded the Nobel peace prize.
guardian.co.uk