Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election
WASHINGTON (AP) – Labor Department staff, analyzing statistics from private economists, report in an internal memo that President Bush is likely to do “much better” in Tuesday’s election than the polls are predicting.
The Kerry campaign said the analysis was an improper use of taxpayer money, and the Labor Department acknowledged Friday, “Clearly, this kind of armchair political analysis doesn’t belong in government memos, even if they are entirely internal.”
The Labor Department report, obtained by The Associated Press, includes an analysis of economic models that suggest Bush will beat Democrat John Kerry. Titled “In Focus: Predicting the Election Outcome,” the memo says, “Nearly every single model has him winning.”
“Some show the margin of victory being smaller than the models’ inherent margin of error, while others report the lead as substantial. And this is without the consideration of a third-party candidate.”
Bush’s win of the popular vote could be 57.5 percent, 55.7 percent or 51.2 percent, said the paper, dated Oct. 22 and prepared by the department’s Employment and Training Administration staff for the assistant labor secretary.